Who is the better pick, Maddison or Sterling?

The Scout analyses in-form duo as Fantasy managers reassess their midfields ahead of Gameweek 4

Managers in Fantasy Premier League are scrambling to bring in Raheem Sterling (£7.1m) and James Maddison (£7.6m) for Gameweek 4.
Who is the better pick, Maddison or Sterling?
Sterling‘s two goals and an assist in Chelsea’s 3-0 win over Luton Town on Friday evening made him the Gameweek’s most-bought player.

Sterling’s first goal v Luton

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695209690190196915

Most-bought players in GW4

Player	Transfers in
Sterling	260,000
Gusto	249,000
Maddison	154,000

Over 260,000 managers have chosen the Blues’ star ahead of a favourable run of opponents.

Four of their next five matches score only two points, according to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR).

Chelsea’s remaining five games

Gameweek	Opponent	FDR
4	NFO (H)	2
5	BOU (A)	2
6	AVL (H)	3
7	FUL (A)	2
8	BUR (A)	2

Maddison’s goal and ten points in Tottenham Hotspur’s 2-0 win over AFC Bournemouth on Saturday drew attention as well.

Most-bought players last 24 hours

Player	Transfers in
Sterling	162,000
Maddison	139,000
Gusto	117,000

In the previous 24 hours, he has surpassed Sterling in terms of transfers, claiming 139,000 new owners ahead of back-to-back matches against Burnley and Sheffield United.

Spurs’ next two matches

Gameweek	Opponent	FDR
4	BUR (A)	2
5	SHU (H)	2

The duo’s performances come at a time when Fantasy managers are rethinking their midfield options.

At the Emirates Stadium in Gameweek 4, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (£8.6m) and Martin Odegaard (£8.5m) meet Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) and Marcus Rashford (£9.0m).

Furthermore, Brighton & Hove Albion’s home game against Newcastle United kicks off a string of difficult fixtures for the popular Kaoru Mitoma (£6.6m).

Although Sterling has a 23-point margin over Maddison, the underlying numbers reveal a different tale.

Sterling v Maddison, first three GWs

Player	Sterling	Chelsea rank	Maddison	TOT rank
Points	23	1	22	1
xGI	1.38	3	2.88	1
Touches in box	35	1	14	4
Shots	6	3	8	1
Shots in box	6	2	7	=1
Created chances	4	3	9	1

Maddison has recorded an expected goal involvement (xGI) score of 2.88, more than double Sterling’s 1.38.

He also surpasses his rival for shots, shots in the box and chances created.

Maddison’s goal v AFC Bournemouth

https://twitter.com/i/status/1695541671348605349

When assessed against their respective team-mates, the Spurs attacker dominates further.

Maddison’s eight shots and nine chances created both rank top for Ange Postecoglou’s side, while his seven shots in the box are joint-first with Pape Sarr (£4.5m).

Greater threat

Sterling’s six shots, six shots in the box and four chances created, meanwhile, all rank among Chelsea’s top three players.

His most noticeable statistic is 35 touches in the box, which is a league-high following Saturday’s Gameweek 3 matches.

Assessed against their displays in the previous campaign, it’s clear that both Maddison and Sterling are boasting a greater threat inside the opposition penalty area.

Although Maddison’s shots and minutes per shot are near-identical to his 2022/23 season at Leicester City, his shots in the box per match have climbed from 1.3 to 2.3.

Maddison 2023/24 vs 2022/23

	2023/24	2022/23
Touches in box	4.7	3.6
Shots	2.7	2.8
Shots in box	2.3	1.3
Mins/shots	31.6	29
Created chances	3.0	2.3
Mins/Created chances	28	36

It’s a similar story for Sterling across those same three statistics, with his shots in the box up from 1.2 to 2.0.

Sterling 2023/24 vs 2022/23

Touches in box	11.7	4.6
Shots	2.0	1.5
Shots in box	2.0	1.2
Mins/shots	43.5	45.1
Created chances	1.3	1.2
Mins/Created chances	65	56

When it comes to creativity, though, Maddison has the clear upper hand.

His 28 minutes per key pass is quicker than his average of 36 minutes from last season and is more than twice as fast as Sterling’s 65 minutes for Chelsea this term.

Overall, then, Maddison looks the standout pick of the two.

Handed more freedom to attack under Postecoglou, he has immediately established himself as a central figure for Spurs in the first season of the post-Harry Kane era.

His potential for both goals and assists looks to have improved from last term, suggesting he can return to the form of 2021/22, where he recorded his career-high 181 points.

Although Sterling is overshadowed in the analysis, his improved goal threat in the box under new head coach Mauricio Pochettino offers plenty of encouragement for Chelsea’s favourable schedule.